• By Amy Castor and David Gerard

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Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange that deals in actual US dollars, has published its earnings for the first quarter of 2024 — when the bitcoin price reached its previous peak again. [Shareholder letter, PDF; Earnings call webcast; Earnings call transcript, PDF; Analyst call transcript, PDF; 10-Q]

The numbers look great! “We generated $1.6 billion of total revenue and $1.2 billion of net income. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.0 billion – more than we generated in all of 2023,” said CEO Brian Armstrong in the earnings call on May 2.

But those numbers are considerably juiced in important ways.

Numbers go up! When you change how you count them

Coinbase reported $1.6 billion in total revenue and $1.2 billion in net income in Q1 2024.

Those numbers are better than Q4 2023 — the first quarter Coinbase reported a profit in eight quarters. In that quarter, Coinbase reported $954 million in total revenue and $273 million net income.  

But this quarter’s numbers are up because Coinbase holds crypto as an investment — and when the bitcoin price went from $42,000 to $71,000 in the first three months of the year, Coinbase claimed considerable one-time paper gains. 

This is because GAAP accounting for crypto changed. Previously, you could only list the value of crypto you held at what you paid for it or less. You couldn’t account for the number going up as profits. But starting December 13, 2023, you suddenly could, under new FASB rule ASU 2023-08. [FASB, 2023; ASU 2023-08, PDF]

This did wonders for Coinbase’s next quarter!

Coinbase lists $737 million in mark-to-market crypto gains in Q1 — imaginary dollar gains on way more bitcoins than they could ever sell in those quantities — of which $86 million came from gains on digital assets held for operations and $650 million from unrealized investment gains. All this is only listable because of ASU 2023-08.

The crypto gains are listed on the balance sheet as cash coming in. But these aren’t real dollars until Coinbase sells the bitcoins and pays taxes on the capital gains.

“When a company counts bitcoin as revenue — that’s not cash. You can’t pay people with it, you can’t keep the lights on with it. It’s what we call an ‘accounting treatment’ but it is not cash,” Ted Gavin, managing partner and founder of corporate restructuring firm Gavin/Solmonese, told us in a recent phone conversation.  

Trading volume up — a bit

Trading is the lifeblood of any crypto exchange. It’s where Coinbase has traditionally made their money — on trading fees.

Coinbase was profitable in Q4 2021 when they did $547 billion in trading volume. After that, the company was unprofitable for eight straight quarters and trading volume plummeted.

Retail trade volume is three times what it was last quarter! But it’s still a fraction of what it was in the last bull run. Retail volume was $56 billion in Q1 2024 — compared to $177 billion in Q4 2021.

Retail trading is particularly important — it’s where the scarce actually-existing dollars (not just accounting fictions) find their way into the crypto ecosystem.

Institutional trading was the bulk of Coinbase trading — $256 billion volume in Q1 2024 compared to $371 billion in Q4 2021, the last bull run. That’s not terrible — but institutional fees are lower. 

What does this tell us? It means that when number went up, some retail investors came back to try their luck — but many more remain leery of crypto after the collapses of Terra-Luna and then FTX.

Custody — spot ETFs

The SEC approved 11 bitcoin spot ETFs in January — and eight of those, including the largest, Grayscale’s GBTC, use Coinbase as a custodian. 

Coinbase had hoped to make more money as a custodian to supplement its ailing trading business — but the bitcoin ETFs have not pumped up their revenue. 

Despite nearly $11 billion in ETF inflows in the first quarter, Coinbase custodial fees were only $32 million — or 0.2% of their total revenue — up from $19.7 million in Q4 2023. 

Interest

Coinbase makes money on the reserves backing the USDC stablecoin.

It turns out there’s a lot of money in dollar liabilities that you pay zero interest on but which give you 5% interest on the backing reserves. So Coinbase’s income from USDC interest was $197 million in Q1 2024.

There was also $66.7 million from lending out USDC and crypto for trading.

Long-term debt

Coinbase has $4.2 billion in debt. In the first quarter, they added $1.1 billion in long-term debt in convertible senior notes. The money was to pay off existing debt and for general corporate purposes. The notes mature in 2030. [Axios]

Convertible notes are a popular way for startups to raise capital. The primary purpose is that they convert into equity at some point. The notes are usually senior to common stock — if Coinbase went belly up, the holders of senior convertible notes would have priority over common shareholders

While Coinbase purports to have a lot of cash on hand, they also have a lot of debt. They are still spending a lot of money. 

The searing light of regulatory clarity

“We’re driving regulatory clarity,” said Armstrong in the earnings call.

In practice, regulatory clarity is driving Coinbase. One of the biggest challenges that Coinbase faces is a regulatory crackdown on crypto exchanges.

The SEC and 10 states sued Coinbase in June 2023 for operating an unregistered exchange and selling unregistered securities to retail. If the SEC prevails, there goes Coinbase’s entire business model.

EBITDA, the bodybuilding supplement for your numbers

Coinbase really likes its EBITDA numbers. They even started the earnings and analyst calls directly stating they’d hammer on these non-GAAP numbers. “We generated more Adjusted EBITDA than we did all of last year!” Armstrong proudly announced.

EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is a measure of profitability that many companies put into their quarterly filings.

EBITDA will often look much better than those tawdry old-fashioned standardized GAAP numbers — because it sweeps the real costs of doing business under the rug.

Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger famously said that every time you see EBITDA, you should substitute “bullsh-t earnings.” [YouTube]

EBITDA isn’t even calculated consistently across different companies. And then there’s “Adjusted EBITDA,” which is a BS number of a BS number. Coinbase is even fonder of this one.

Coinbase’s “adjusted EBITDA” excludes stock-based compensation, because the numbers look way better if you leave out the bit where you have to pay your employees.

“While Coinbase may be reporting $1.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA, that is not what would be left for creditors. It is going to be some number grossly smaller than that,” Ted Gavin told us.

Coinbase’s 10-Q has a whole section excusing their use of these BS numbers. Don’t spend too much time on EBITDA — treat it as a distraction.

What all this means

The bitcoin price recovered — but the market didn’t really recover. The price going up was mostly driven by trading in dubiously-backed stablecoins on unregulated exchanges — not by people liking bitcoins more.

The price rise did seem to get a bit of volume going this quarter. But bitcoin spot ETFs turned out not to be Coinbase’s or the crypto market’s savior. In the last few weeks, we’ve even been seeing more net outflow from the ETFs.

The COIN stock price is up 42% in the year to date — but that’s mainly because the price of bitcoin has gone up this year. 

Coinbase’s numbers in  Q1 2024 are heavily juiced by unrealized gains on the face value of their crypto holdings. The company is not at all out of the woods. ETFs weren’t the magic trick — they’ll need some new Hail Mary.