Amy and David answer your questions — bitcoin mining, ETH staking, FTX, Tether, and more! 

  • By Amy Castor and David Gerard

We asked readers what they were curious about in crypto. We posted part one of our answers earlier this month. Now here’s part two! [Twitter; Bluesky

Sending us money will definitely help — here’s Amy’s Patreon, and here’s David’s.

Q: An update on the carbon footprint of the crypto industry for 2023, if this hasn’t been done by someone else already? Thanks [Thomas Endgame on Twitter]

The news is still dismal. The bitcoin network’s annual carbon footprint is a shocking 76.79 million tons of carbon dioxide, comparable to the entire country of Oman, according to Digiconomist. [Digiconomist, archive]

In terms of energy, bitcoin uses as much electricity as the country of Ukraine — 137.68 terawatt-hours annually. Energy consumption was highest in the first half of 2022 — 204 terawatt-hours per year — but started to go down in July, after the crypto collapse

The network currently produces 23.75 kilotons of e-waste per year, comparable to the entire Netherlands, and every bitcoin transaction uses enough water to fill a swimming pool.

This is why some of the good citizens of Texas are fighting back against the crypto mines there. 

Q: Who’ll be left holding bags when Tether collapses? [Julius Cobbett on Twitter]

Tethers (USDT) function as substitute dollars on offshore crypto exchanges that have no access to US dollar banking.

The biggest holders of tethers are arbitrageurs, such as Cumberland, who pass tethers along to secondary users in exchange for bitcoins and other crypto. [CoinTelegraph, 2020; Protos]

If all tethers were suddenly switched off tomorrow, that would be nearly 100 billion “dollars” in liquidity instantly sucked out of the market.  

Any secondary users stuck holding tether would find their virtual dollars suddenly worthless. Arbitrageurs would have nothing to buy and sell bitcoin with on offshore exchanges — they would have to switch over to a different stablecoin — and the price of bitcoin would likely take a serious hit.

We would expect to see a large number of bitcoin holders trying to dump their holdings on actual-dollar exchanges like Coinbase in a mad rush to get out of the market. It might look like a bunch of mice trying to squeeze out of a tiny hole. 

Q. We all know crypto is garbage, why does YAHOO finance continue to have the BTC ticker and other crypto related garbage up? I’d have thought by now it would be gone. [Barsoapguy on Twitter]

Sadly, with bitcoin ETFs and so on still all over the finance press, it’s a relevant number to put up. Even if they just pull the number from whatever CoinMarketCap says.

Q. In the bankruptcy of FTX, about 7B of the $8.7B said to be “lost” has been found, and with Crypto making a comeback all creditors may become whole or better. But SBF rots in prison for decades? And BK firms make over a billion in fees? [Bill Hochberg on Twitter]

There are two misconceptions here — one is that John Jay Ray and his team have found all the money and everything will be fine. The other is that Ray and his lawyers are gouging the creditors and nobody can stop them.

FTX got itself into trouble because it had stolen the customer assets, then inflated its balance sheets with worthless FTT tokens — its own illiquid supermarket loyalty card points. The FTT made up a third of its balance sheet. When FTX filed for bankruptcy in November 2022, it had a shortfall of $8.7 billion.

As we wrote at the time, FTX’s debts were real, but its assets were fake. The FTT was unsaleable garbage, not something that Ray and his team could turn into cash.

In August 2023, Ray estimated his team had recovered $7 billion — but that included spurious dollar values for trash crypto assets. A lot of it will be FTT and other worthless tokens that aren’t realistically convertible to cash in those quantities. 

In October 2023, FTX said it would refund up to 90% of “distributable assets” to creditors. That’s 90% of the amount of funds that FTX was able to recover — not 90% of the amount owed to creditors. [FTX]

Bitcoin has gone up in price since FTX fell over. The price of bitcoin was $17,000 when FTX filed for bankruptcy. Now it’s over $40,000. If FTX held onto its crypto holdings, instead of converting them into cash as soon as possible, they might have made some money. But bankruptcy lawyers typically don’t gamble on volatile markets. 

Bankruptcy professionals are super expensive. Ray’s team has so far cost about $200 million. That’s a lot of money, and many people questioned this — but even the independent fee examiner said, yep, that looked about right for the ridiculous mess Ray had to sort out here.

An appeals court has ordered the appointment of an independent examiner reporting to the US Trustee, paid for out of the bankruptcy estate, which will likely cost another $100 million or so.

Q: Eth staking and destaking? It was not possible to unstake at launch, does it work now? Are stakers happy? How scammy is the whole thing? There was some stuff about OFAC compliance for stakers too? I don’t know? I might use an explainer? [Laventeot on Twitter]

Ethereum proof of stake uses validators rather than miners like bitcoin does. Every validator has a chance at winning this moment’s ETH. If your block is the winner, you get the block reward, transaction fees, and all the MEV you can steal.

You can set up a validator at the cost of staking 32 ETH. When Ethereum moved to proof of stake in September 2022, this 32 ETH couldn’t be unstaked. But since Ethereum’s Shanghai upgrade in April 2023, it is now possible to unstake your staked ETH.

Unstaking has a queueing mechanism to avoid there being too much churn. So when there’s a big dump — such as when Celsius Network destaked 30,000 ETH recently to hand back to their bankruptcy creditors — it can take days or even weeks to process. [Nansen]

The staking process seems to work as advertised and the stakers are pleased with it.

The process closely resembles an unregistered security in the US — the Ethereum Foundation (incorporated in Switzerland) promotes that you put in your ETH and you get a return on it from the efforts of others.

Some exchanges offer staking as a service — this is probably okay if the customers are accredited or institutional, and an excellent way to accumulate cease and desist letters from the SEC and state securities regulators if the customers are retail.

Anyone moving money — or, in FinCEN’s terms, “value that substitutes for currency,” including “convertible virtual currencies” — as a business in the US is required to comply with sanctions law. This is usually assumed to mean not validating transactions for sanctioned blockchain addresses listed by OFAC. US-based validators would be very foolish to flout this.

OFAC compliance in transaction processing doesn’t directly relate to the economics of staking in itself — US bitcoin miners would similarly be liable under law for processing transactions for sanctioned entities, even if OFAC hasn’t called them up yet.

Q: maybe a check-in on the enterprise blockchain pitch decks? is the same dead horse still being beaten? [Stephen Farrugia on Twitter]

Enterprise blockchain has gone back into hibernation. Corporate interest in non-cryptocurrency blockchain goes up and down with the price of bitcoin — lots of interest in 2017 and 2018, almost none in 2019 and 2020, and a sudden burst of interest in 2021 as the number went up.

The problem with enterprise blockchain is that it’s a completely useless idea. A blockchain doesn’t actually work any better than using a conventional database in any situation where you have a trusted entity who’s responsible for the system. If you’re a business, that’ll be yourself. Just use Postgres.

The main remaining interest in enterprise blockchain is inside banks. We’ve had many reports of bank fintech research units infested with coiners trying to do something — anything — that they can say is “blockchain.” Société Générale’s completely useless euro stablecoin is one recent example.

Q. Something on the way that Bitcoin Magazine and BitMEX bought commercial places on the Peregrine Mission One so they could say they’d “gone to the moon” … and the spacecraft is going to miss the moon. [BiFuriosa on Bluesky]

Private companies have of late been offering to send personal items — cremated remains, time capsules, and even crypto — to the moon. Astrobotic, which owns Peregrin-1, is one of them. 

In May, BitMEX and Bitcoin Magazine announced they were going to send a physical bitcoin to the moon via Astrobotic — that is, a metal medallion with a bitcoin private key engraved onto it. They declared that this would mark a “defining moment for bitcoin as we explore the possibilities of Bitcoin beyond planet Earth.” [BitMEX, archive]

Peregrin-1 made it into space earlier this month — but it never managed to land on the moon. So when it burned up on re-entry to Earth’s atmosphere, everything onboard burned up with it, including the time capsules, the ashes of more than 200 people, and the bitcoin. [Gizmodo]

Dogecoin fans had earlier funded a similar effort to send a physical dogecoin to the moon in 2015, also via Astrobotic. As of 2023, they were still trying to get it sent up. If the physical dogecoin had been onboard, it would have met the same fate. [Twitter, archive]

Sadly, even the moon hates crypto. 

Q. Why are people still falling for this nonsense? [Peter Nimmo on Mastodon]

Dude, they can get rich for free! Maybe.

Thankfully, fewer people are falling for the nonsense. Retail trade is one-eighth of what it was in the 2021 bubble. Most of the dollars boosting the price of bitcoin since 2017 have been fake. 

By the end of 2017, a billion USDT was sloshing around in the crypto markets; today in 2024, we’re coming up to 100 billion USDT. Bitcoin’s price is largely manipulated.

Crypto media — CoinDesk, The Block, Decrypt, and others — play a major role in promoting the nonsense. These outlets, owned and/or financed by crypto companies, are the public relations machines for the crypto industry. The finance press treats these sites as specialist trade press rather than fundamentally a promotional mechanism.

Crypto has also put big money into lobbying efforts, so we see senators like Cynthia Lummis, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Rand Paul shamefully repeating the propaganda. 

Crypto skeptics are a smaller group who try to warn people of the dangers of investing in crypto. So it’s important to send money to us. Instead of bitcoins, we spend it on useful things like wine to get through all this guff.

Q. Once Crypto blows over what will we salt our popcorn with? [EamonnMR on Mastodon]

We don’t expect crypto to ever disappear completely. We do expect the number to eventually go down to the point where fewer people pay attention.

Meme stocks blew out even harder than crypto did. The remaining devotees are like QAnon for finance, posting to Reddit with their theories of how much they’ll surely get for their deactivated BBBY shares when the Mother Of All Short Squeezes finally descends.

Now that the well of dumb crypto money has dried up, venture capitalists are pivoting to AI as the next big thing. The tech is running out of steam, though. But the power consumption is likely to be even worse than bitcoin mining by 2027, and the AI grifters are using the same excuses for it as the bitcoin grifters. [Digiconomist]

Suckers are eternal. As long as money exists, fraud and get-rich schemes will be with us. And we’ll have something to write about.

Image: Hans at Pixabay, CC-0

Crypto collapse: J. Pierpont Moneygone — FTX rekt, bought by Binance

  • By Amy Castor and David Gerard
  • Send us money! Our work is funded by our Patreons — here’s Amy’s, and here’s David’s. Your monthly contributions help greatly!

The 2021–2022 crypto bubble made a lot of traders look like geniuses. Then the bubble popped, the tide went out, and the traders turned out to be hugely overleveraged formerly-lucky idiots.

Sociologists know that when a cult prophecy fails, most cultists exit the cult, and the remaining factions turn on each other.

Crypto watchers know that this can also be exceedingly funny.

Imaginary assets, real liabilities

Sam Bankman-Fried’s boosters compare him to the legendary banker J. P. Morgan. He’s spent the crypto collapse bailing out ailing companies to keep the entire market afloat.

Bankman-Fried runs three large crypto enterprises:

  1. Alameda Research, his crypto hedge fund;
  2. FTX, his unregulated offshore crypto casino that doesn’t allow US customers;
  3. FTX US, his exchange for US customers that purports to operate under US law and accepts actual dollars.

On November 2, Coindesk’s Ian Allison posted an explosive story on a partially leaked balance sheet for Alameda. [CoinDesk]

Of Alameda’s $14.6 billion in claimed assets, $5.8 billion is FTT — FTX’s internal exchange token. You can use FTT for cheaper trading fees and increased commissions. FTT is also traded outside FTX.

Allison also noted that $5.8 billion is actually 180% of the circulating supply of FTT!

Alameda’s liabilities are listed at $8 billion, most of which is $7.4 billion of loans — quite a bit of that from FTX.

Alameda is super cashed-up … if you account for FTX’s own FTT token at mark-to-market, and not what you could actually get for that much of their private illiquid altcoin.

To make matters worse, Dirty Bubble notes that a lot of Alameda’s other assets are crypto tokens from other Sam Bankman-Fried enterprises. [Dirty Bubble Media]

Alameda and FTX seem to have printed FTT, pumped its price using customer assets — FTX was quite open that it was the FTT market maker, and there’s no other real demand — and used the mark-to-market value of their illiquid made-up token as collateral for loans, or as evidence that pension funds should invest in crypto companies.

This works great while number is going up!

Regular readers will know that this sort of flywheel scheme is precisely what Celsius Network tried to run with their CEL token and Nexo with their NEXO token. Celsius is bankrupt, and regulators have noticed that Nexo is only solvent if you allow them this particular tricky bit of accounting.

Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison said the leaked balance sheet Coindesk got a hold of was “incomplete,” and there were $10 billion in assets not listed there. [Twitter, archive

The crypto world spent a few days wondering if Alameda was the next Three Arrows Capital.

CZ pulls the plug

Large flows of FTT were noticed on the blockchain on November 6. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao confirmed that this was Binance selling off its FTT: [Twitter, archive]

“As part of Binance’s exit from FTX equity last year, Binance received roughly $2.1 billion USD equivalent in cash (BUSD and FTT). Due to recent revelations that have came to light, we have decided to liquidate any remaining FTT on our books.”

The remaining FTT that Binance sold was worth $530 million. [Bloomberg]

CZ was also annoyed at Bankman-Fried’s lobbying efforts for crypto regulation in Washington: “We won’t support people who lobby against other industry players behind their backs.” [Twitter, archive]

The crypto market is incredibly shaky. Alameda and FTX operate as separate corporations, but the market seems to think they’re closely entwined. Trouble at Alameda leads to worry about FTX.

So panicked holders, thinking Alameda might be insolvent, started withdrawing funds from FTX as fast as possible — and hardly deposited anything at all.

FTX paused all withdrawals on the Ethereum, Solana, and Tron blockchains around 11:37 a.m. UTC on November 8, according to Steven Zheng at The Block. [The Block]

Finally, just after 4 p.m. UTC, Bankman-Fried and CZ announced that Binance was buying FTX. Specifically, they have a non-binding letter of intent, pending due diligence. [Twitter, archive; Twitter, archive]

Essentially, CZ started a bank run on FTX, then swooped in to buy his competitor after breaking it. CZ did to Bankman-Fried what Bankman-Fried has been accused of doing to a string of others.

At present, this is only a letter of intent, not a done deal — CZ is making Bankman-Fried suffer. He could just let FTX go hang.

How screwed are FTX and Alameda?

CZ said FTX was in a “significant liquidity crunch.” This is the sort of “liquidity crunch” that everyone else calls “insolvency.” If it were just liquidity, FTX could have borrowed against its assets and found another way out of this. [Twitter, archive]

We don’t know for sure that Alameda was trading with FTX customer funds — but this sort of fractional reserve operation is the only not-entirely-fraudulent reason that FTX could have run out of customer funds in this way.

Bankman-Fried claimed on November 7 that “FTX has enough to cover all client holdings. We don’t invest client assets (even in treasuries).” This appears not to have been true, and he later deleted the tweet. [Twitter, archive]

If FTX couldn’t get its funds back from Alameda quickly, that would have then led to the liquidity crunch.

What about FTX US?

Bankman-Fried was quick to reassure customers that FTX US was not affected and that it was “fully backed 1:1, and operating normally.” So at least FTX US explicitly claims it isn’t playing the markets with your deposits. [Twitter, archive]  

FTX US is also attempting to buy the remains of the bankrupt Voyager Digital, a deal that we think is likely to go through.

The separation of customer funds and platforms is the whole point of FTX US versus FTX. It’s there to make Sam look good to regulators.

But it’s all Sam Bankman-Fried. It’s Sam’s left pocket versus his right pocket.

We think that if your paycheck goes into FTX US, you probably want to stop doing that immediately.

What happens next? It’s contagion time!

Alameda has likely been borrowing against the FTT it held — the FTT that is now crashing. (Earlier today, FTT was worth $19; as we post this, it’s trading at $4.60.)

Binance might rescue FTX, but it’s sure not going to rescue Alameda.

This means a series of margin calls by everyone who’s lent to Alameda. If Alameda defaults, those lenders will likely end up with worthless FTT.

BlockFi and Genesis have a pile of money in Alameda. BlockFi is or will be owned in some unspecified manner by FTX US, but that doesn’t make the books balance — there’s already a rumor of a 24-hour margin call by BlockFi against Alameda. [Twitter]

Remember that Three Arrows Capital collapsed when their UST turned out to be worthless. This then took out a pile of other crypto trading firms — most notably Celsius Network and Voyager Digital.

We’re left with two questions:

  1. Who is lending to Alameda?
  2. Who’s lending to those lenders — and risks going down in turn?

The crypto market is not happy. Bitcoin has been up and down like a yo-yo today, from $19,500 just before 4 p.m. UTC to a peak of $20,500 and a trough of $17,500.

We predict more market excitement to come — specifically, a possible Alameda collapse, a chain reaction of lender failures, and attempts to cover sudden balance-sheet holes, much as we saw after the Terra-Luna and Three Arrows collapses.

But Caroline Ellison from Alameda insists there’s another $10 billion behind the sofa or something. Maybe it’s all fine!

Image: FT Alphaville